Kansas City Election Mayoral & 4th District At-Large Predictions

What a great primary season it’s been! I’ve been paying attention to local politics for a long time, and I’ve never seen such a great group of candidates on one ballot. Kansas City will be stronger after this election season than it was going in.

That said, here are my predictions on how the mayoral election will shake out. I’m voting for Sly James, and it’s possible that my views are coloring my expectations, but we’ll see about that. Anyhow, I think the results tonight will be Funkhouser 25%, James 22%, Burke 19%, Rowland 15%, Hermann 11%, Klein 5%, Wheeler 3%,

In the general, I think it will be James 62%, Funkhouser 38%.

In the Fourth District at-Large, I am supporting Jim Glover, but I find this one a lot harder to predict. Crawford is easy – he’s going to place first in the primary, by a solid margin. After that, though, it gets a lot tougher. Glover has name recognition going for him, but ran a lackadaisical (at best) campaign. while Presley has money and the Republican/Tea Party bloc solidly behind her. McGregor should have resigned and endorsed Glover, and Pace never got into the race. My prediction is Crawford 41%, Presley 23%, Glover 21%, McGregor 11%, Pace 4%.

In the general, I think it will be Crawford 58%, Presley 42%.

I hate to apply my tag “Uncanny Gone Mild Predictions” to this post, because I don’t have my usual confidence in my guesses. While I remain confident that Funkhouser will escape the primary, I could easily imagine the other survivor being James, Burke or Rowland. In the 4th at-large, I would bet my house that Crawford cruises through the primary, but it’s tough to guess whether there are more people who remember Glover fondly or who respond to Presley’s perky Palin persona.

It’s a wide-open year. Get out and vote – if turnout is at the 18% or so they’re predicting, it’s like casting 5 votes for the price of one!

8 Responses to “Kansas City Election Mayoral & 4th District At-Large Predictions”

  1. Nick says:

    Fitz has the percentages somewhat differently: Burke, 23%, James, 22%, Hermann, 18%, Funkhouser, 16%…but he is as unabashed a Burke supporter as you were once a Funk supporter.

    I imagine Funk gets through today’s scrape. Other than that, I believe it will be a nail biter between Herman and Burke. The the real catfight will begin…

    I would also like to see Crawford represent the 4th, but my gut (far more reliable than Shrub’s) says lil’ Annie outspends him in the general and finally lands her (hopefully) only personal political win…

  2. gonemild says:

    I would be thrilled to see Burke and James get through the primary, but I think a lot of insiders confuse the depth of their hatred of Funkhouser with its breadth. And, oddly enough, I think Yael has been as helpful for Funk this time as he was last time. By splitting the endorsement, they managed to rob it of any positive value, while it enhances Funkhouser’s claims of being hated by the insiders.

  3. Dave H. says:

    Funk will get back in easily and the KC Star might have just put him back in with all their negtive comments from yael and the rest of the editorial board kooks .

  4. Sandy says:

    Hope you’re on target. I’m off at 4pm to add my voice of discontent.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Why even have at-large districts?

  6. A Friend says:

    Well, in most cases, at least, it looks like Kansas Citians are smarter than some of us might have thought. A welcome come-uppance, as far as I am concerned.

  7. gonemild says:

    I agree entirely!

  8. Inafunkaboutthefunk says:

    I guess the Funk won’t be in the general election after all. Our Municipal Nightmare has ended. Two more months and the two of them will be gone and quickly forgotten. Good riddance :)

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